It seems that China's leaders have accepted the need for a cap on carbon emissions. This will put pressure on other countries and should herald a new era for international action

Local media in China have reported that the powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the agency responsible for planning China’s social and economic development, has proposed the country adopt an absolute cap on carbon emissions from 2016.

This move would have huge ramifications for international diplomacy on climate change. It would also silence those who urge the UK to give up on carbon reduction on the grounds that it is pointless while the Chinese economy runs on coal.

For the emissions cap to be implemented, the NDRC’s proposal needs to be accepted by China’s cabinet, the State Council. Since the State Council’s Development and Research Centre argued 18 months ago that the cap was needed for China’s nascent emission trading schemes to work effectively, this seems very likely.

Implementing an absolute emissions cap would mark a huge shift in China’s approach to climate change. Currently, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases only has a carbon emissions intensity target – to cut CO2 per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels, which allows its emissions to keep growing.

Setting an absolute limit on emissions would send a strong signal that China recognises the threats from climate change and is serious about tackling the issue. As the world’s leader for low-carbon investments, having attracted an unsurpassed 30% of the total invested across the G20 in 2012, we already know China is serious about prospering from the transition to a decarbonised economy.

The main barrier to achieving international agreement on tackling climate change until now has been whether and how developed and developing countries should share responsibility for reducing emissions. The US failed to ratify the Kyoto Treaty because it specified emissions reduction targets for developed countries but not for developing countries.

The next major milestone for the international negotiations is in Paris in 2015, by which point world leaders have committed to agreeing a new settlement to keep temperature rises under 2 degrees Celsius – a level deemed ‘dangerous’ by scientists.

If the Chinese enter these negotiations committed to an absolute cap on their emissions, this will raise the pressure on the US to act and could pave the way for a ground-breaking deal.

There is an increasingly loud chorus of climate-denying voices in the UK. Some argue that the science is not clear, despite there being near-absolute consensus in the scientific community that climate change is happening and man-made. Others argue that the UK and EU should not go it alone, that we cannot afford to tackle climate change when other countries are not.

By adopting an emissions cap, the Chinese would lay waste to this argument and herald a new era for international action. Let us hope that they do.

Nick Pearce is director of the Institute for Public Policy Research. This post first appeared on Nick's Blog