Official stats suggest brighter outlook for Italian economy

5 Aug 19

Italy’s economy could soon improve, according to the country’s national institute of statistics.

The country’s GDP growth has been between -0.1% and +0.1% for the past five quarters.

But in its most recent monthly report, released today, ISTAT stated its ‘leading indicator’ to forecast the direction of Italy’s economy had “interrupted its decreasing trend” in July. ISTAT does not say what the ‘leading indicator’ but examples could be the housing market, manufacturing activity or the stock market. 

The organisation suggested this means the Italian economy “will improve marginally in the coming months”.

Last month, inflation continued to decelerate (to +0.5%) as it has been for some time, with the negative gap between Italy and the rest of the Eurozone widening further.

July’s consumer confidence index showed a “strong broad-based improvement”, and business confidence improved in every sector apart from manufacturing, ISTAT also reported.

And Italy’s labour market appeared to be improving: the unemployment rate decreased to 9.7% in June, its lowest value since January 2012.

In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook projections, updated in July, Italy’s economy was projected to grow by just 0.1% this year.

The projections blamed an “uncertain fiscal outlook” for “taking a toll on investment and domestic demand”.

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